90% of Meme Investors Lose: How to Win Like a True Meme OG

1. Understanding the Meme Market

This article was written when SOL was priced at $230, and the hype around meme coins on Solana was at an all-time high. During such times, it’s challenging to maintain a clear perspective on the meme market, especially when euphoria is driving everything forward. Fortunately, having been deeply involved in the Solana meme market since 2023, I can provide a broader view of its dynamics.

Let’s take a step back to early July and review the last three major meme waves on Solana.

Wave 1: Early July

In early July, the market was still gripped by fear. BTC hovered around $57K, and Solana traded at $139. A budding meme wave emerged, gaining strength as BTC rallied, bringing a sense of optimism to the market. This euphoria pushed Solana to $180 and birthed an unprecedented meme frenzy. Top meme coins surged 5x, 7x, and even 10x. However, the hype was short-lived. Within a week, most meme coins retraced to their starting points or even hit new lows, leaving the market in a lull.

Wave 2: Early October

After a quiet period, another meme wave began. Though not as strong as July's, it was enough to push well-established meme coins with strong communities to 3x or 5x from their lows. By this time, Solana had dipped to $138 but began rallying again in early October. Once more, meme coins followed, spiking for about 10 days before settling back, leaving the market in anticipation of another bull run.

Wave 3: November - The Most Explosive Meme Wave Yet

November brought unprecedented volatility and excitement. Before the U.S. elections, fear gripped the market. However, Trump’s victory catalyzed a historic rally: BTC broke all-time highs, and Solana climbed to $230. Meme coins surged as never before. Projects like $Moodeng, $GOAT, $Peanut, and $Act led the charge, creating massive FOMO across platforms like Binance and Solana.

New meme coins flooded the market, each easily reaching multi-million-dollar market caps. Established meme coins like Pepe and Bome doubled or tripled in value. KOLs hyped up projects, resulting in wild speculation. Now, as I write this, the market is cooling down after 10 intense days of FOMO. While BTC has climbed past $90K and Solana holds above $230, meme coins are losing steam, which may shock newcomers.

The key takeaway? Opportunities always exist, but success requires the ability to identify and evaluate potential meme coins during both strong and weak market phases—something 90% of meme investors fail to do.

2. How to Find and Evaluate Potential Meme Coins

In the fast-moving world of meme tokens, it’s essential to have a clear, structured approach to identifying potential gems and avoiding pitfalls. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you navigate the market effectively:

Step 1: Use Dex Screener for Initial Research
(dexscreener.com)

Start by using Dex Screener to explore trending tokens or filter by 6-hour and 24-hour trading volume. This will highlight tokens with significant daily activity.

For a more targeted search, apply filters to uncover hidden gems with strong growth potential. These filters can help narrow down promising opportunities that may not yet be widely recognized.

Step 2: Verify Token Details on Meme OG Tracker
(memeog.io)

This is the most critical step in assessing a token’s safety and potential. Use Meme OG Tracker to evaluate important factors, such as:

Contract Security: Check for vulnerabilities, ensuring the contract is neither mintable (allowing more tokens to be created) nor freezable (restricting token movement).
Locked Liquidity: Higher locked liquidity indicates stability and reduces rug-pull risk.
Deployer Wallet and Top Holders: Evaluate the holdings of deployers and top wallets to ensure no single entity holds a disproportionate share.
Sniper and Developer Holdings: Check how much is held by snipers (early buyers) and developers. Excessive concentration in their hands is a warning sign.

If a token passes these assessments, it’s worth investigating further before making a purchase.

Step 3: Analyze Token Charts

Review the token’s price chart for signs of stability or irregularity. Meme tokens are notoriously volatile, but sudden, unexplained spikes or drops may signal manipulation or negative events like FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) or a potential rug-pull.

Be cautious if a token's price changes dramatically without a clear reason, as these could be red flags.

Step 4: Check Social Media (Twitter and Telegram)

Community engagement is critical for meme tokens. Evaluate the project's presence on Twitter and Telegram:

A project without active social channels is a major red flag.
Beware of Telegram groups where chat is disabled; this often indicates potential scams or dishonest intentions from the development team.
Search for the token's ticker on Twitter and read posts to gauge community sentiment and discussions about the token before making a decision.

Step 5: Find the Right Entry Point

Timing your investment is as important as selecting the right token. For well-established tokens, use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis:

Identify historical support (lows) and resistance (highs) levels.
Monitor daily trading volume to assess current market activity.
Keep an eye on macro trends in Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) prices, as meme tokens are highly sensitive to broader market sentiment.

A calculated entry point based on these factors can significantly improve your chances of success. By following this structured approach, you can increase your odds of identifying valuable opportunities in the meme token market while minimizing risk.

3. Advanced Meme Analysis with Meme OG

Tools to Use:

Dexscreener: Identify trending tokens and high-volume coins.
Meme OG Tracker: Analyze contract security, liquidity, and wallet distributions.
Solscan: Investigate transaction details and token holders

1. Contract Security

There are two critical factors to check when assessing the security of a token’s smart contract:

Mintable: Determine if the developers can mint additional tokens. This capability can lead to inflation and devalue the token, often exploited by scammers.
Freezable: Check if the developers have the ability to freeze tokens held by buyers, preventing them from selling. This is a major red flag.

Many traders overlook these basic but essential checks, which opens the door for scammers to exploit the system.

2. Top Holders

Evaluate the distribution of tokens among the top 10 holders, excluding liquidity pools (e.g., Radium Pool) and exchange wallets.

If the top 10 holders collectively control more than 20% of the total supply, it indicates a potential risk.
If this percentage exceeds 30%, it’s a clear red flag, as these holders can manipulate the market or dump tokens, causing significant price drops.

3. Sniper Activity

"Snipers" are individuals or bots that buy tokens early at a low price, often in large quantities.

Check how much of the token supply these early buyers are holding and whether they’ve started selling.
Excessive sniper activity can destabilize the token’s price, especially if these holders begin to offload their assets.

4. Developer Holdings (Dev Hold)

Use tools like Meme OG Tracker and Dexscreener to scan developer wallets.

If developers hold more than 10% of the token supply, this poses a significant risk.
Holdings exceeding 15% are a clear red flag, as it gives developers disproportionate control and the ability to manipulate the market.

Note:

Scanning developer wallets and performing these evaluations may take some time, but it is an essential step to avoid scams and ensure the security of your investments. For a detailed walkthrough of this process, I’ll provide a separate guide within the MEME OG Telegram group.

By understanding these critical metrics, you’ll be better equipped to identify high-potential meme tokens while minimizing your exposure to risks.

4. Avoid FOMO and Stay Disciplined

The meme coin market is volatile. While many profit, far more lose. Discipline and thorough research are crucial to navigating these turbulent waters. By understanding the broader crypto market and applying strategic evaluation methods, you can minimize risks and maximize gains.

Join Meme OG

Meme OG is built by seasoned traders who have distilled their learnings into actionable strategies. Join us to connect and uncover the next big meme opportunities!